{
  "certificate_version": "1",
  "record": {
    "schema": "credit-decision/1",
    "archetype": "credit_decision",
    "issued_at": "2026-09-16T20:28:04.277129+00:00",
    "subject": {
      "model": "xgboost (scale_pos_weight)",
      "dataset": "Kaggle 'Give Me Some Credit' \u2014 150,000 real labeled loan records, 6.7% default (90+ days past due)",
      "rows": 150000,
      "default_rate": 0.0668,
      "split": "70/30"
    },
    "claim": "a credit model identifies who will default at its claimed accuracy",
    "verdict": "falsified",
    "finding": {
      "gap": "misscored_credit_decision",
      "effect": "82.2% accurate \u2014 below the 93.4% 'predict no default' baseline \u2014 and of the borrowers flagged 'will default', only 23.1% actually do (76.9% false alarms)",
      "detail": "the accuracy is an artifact of the 6.7% class imbalance, and the 23% precision means a lender acting on this model would wrongly flag most of the borrowers it denies \u2014 the decision is mis-scored. Scope: this is a backtest on labeled historical loans, not a live future-default forecast (which is judgment-heavy, future unknown)."
    },
    "metrics": {
      "accuracy": 0.822,
      "recall": 0.7199,
      "precision": 0.2305,
      "auc": 0.8497,
      "brier": 0.1282,
      "trivial_accuracy": 0.9337
    },
    "record_hash": "35c0fbdcb75103c30652f91064d0ea861514fc18ad477df56d7d3a7221e3ac16"
  },
  "signature": {
    "algorithm": "ed25519",
    "key_id": "5d303baa00a6b243",
    "verifier_version": "0.2.0",
    "signed_hash": "35c0fbdcb75103c30652f91064d0ea861514fc18ad477df56d7d3a7221e3ac16",
    "signature": "14ee12ac25b7636f7f7758b0c3c047bc4338f41d0b7a63bb73aa8e2a57f5f531aee88e88bdf77a805e973ae68ad6f9873d3e8ebbb658105b3649beffc3cea20c",
    "public_key": "-----BEGIN PUBLIC KEY-----\nMCowBQYDK2VwAyEAJCck0ZY9iv4TdtzJAxiVCJ1J7AiDwYDZ0HwJSzd/few=\n-----END PUBLIC KEY-----\n"
  },
  "key_cert": {
    "not_after": "2027-09-13T16:32:17Z",
    "not_before": "2026-09-13T16:32:17Z",
    "root_key_id": "251b14346af43d1d",
    "root_public_key": "-----BEGIN PUBLIC KEY-----\nMCowBQYDK2VwAyEA/jJuYipI/y6/GDbKYKO/opSFVu3yu0MjlTQ9qtZrKjg=\n-----END PUBLIC KEY-----\n",
    "schema": "turiya/key-cert/1",
    "signature": "a93f8a31060bdcf2e92fa8667ac11e3d3e3d9801c1f5928adb7bce6e6f787dc029a804703bce025347424fce6067008172bdaf17cd6d04f82ba644c98642f900",
    "subkey_id": "5d303baa00a6b243",
    "subkey_public_key": "-----BEGIN PUBLIC KEY-----\nMCowBQYDK2VwAyEAJCck0ZY9iv4TdtzJAxiVCJ1J7AiDwYDZ0HwJSzd/few=\n-----END PUBLIC KEY-----\n"
  },
  "timestamp": {
    "schema": "turiya/rfc3161/1",
    "tsa_url": "https://freetsa.org/tsr",
    "token": 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    "imprint": "35c0fbdcb75103c30652f91064d0ea861514fc18ad477df56d7d3a7221e3ac16",
    "gen_time": "2026-09-23T18:26:11Z",
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    "backfilled": true
  }
}